Airline irregular-ops automation

Context

An airline builds the case for automating irregular-ops rebooking. The value is realized during disruptions (storms, IROPs) — so the annual value swings with how bad the disruption year is, which no one can forecast.

The decision

Present the range — the annual-value band (disruption frequency) is wide, so fund on the downside-positive band rather than a point estimate tied to an average year.

What most miss

The case is built on an 'average' disruption year that never happens; the value is lumpy, and the honest case funds on the band that stays positive even in a mild year.

Stakes

Justify the spend on a heavy-disruption year and a mild one leaves the case underwater.