AI-tutoring rollout across a district

Context

A school district builds the business case for an AI tutoring rollout. The value is real but back-loaded — it only lands once teachers embed it and students use it, and that ramp in a district is slow and uncertain.

The decision

Present the range, not the point — the tornado shows adoption ramp swings the NPV more than any cost line, so fund conditional on the ramp, not the plan number.

What most miss

Education cases over-index on the annual-value estimate; the real uncertainty is the adoption ramp, and a slow ramp quietly halves the three-year value.

Stakes

Funding on a single optimistic NPV and missing the ramp turns a 'positive' case negative by year two.